West KY Weekly Weather Watch 2/2 - 2/8

Hello, and welcome to the Storm Chasing for Science Weather Blog! I want to provide forecasts focused on the Purchase Area of western Kentucky and severe weather (tornadoes, hail, high winds, etc.). However, weather can be too awesome for me to contain my ponderings to a few hundred square miles or to a narrow subtype of storms! So…let’s start with what this week is going to bring to West KY, several warm-ups and cool-downs, but limited chances for severe storms!

Why will it feel like April instead of February this week? Because of the groundhog’s shadow? Err, no. Because of the first rule of weather forecasting–upper level winds control low level conditions. The jet stream, a conveyor belt of high upper level winds yanking weather systems west to east, is all the way up in Canada right now! (A couple weeks ago, the jet stream was all the way down in the Gulf Coast, which brought record breaking snow to the Deep South!) Steady 10-15 mph sustained winds will draw up lots of warmth from the south leaving highs in the mid 60’s. A weak front will push into the region tomorrow and Wednesday dropping highs back to the low-50s with a lack of sunshine ☹️. Strangely, it will warm up overnight on Wednesday until Thursday morning, where temperatures will hit the 60’s before cooling down during the day. Expect light rain on Wednesday and Thursday, throughout each day. Cold fronts are like temperature rollercoasters, what can I say. Friday cool, Saturday warm and wet, Sunday cool to round out the week.

With temperatures this warm and unsettled, will WKY get any severe storms? Not this time–it’s just not warm and humid enough at the low levels of the atmosphere or windy enough at the upper levels to allow that kind of storms! Louisiana could have a little chance of severe weather today, northern Mississippi on Wednesday afternoon, maybe some thunder (or even gusty winds?) on Thursday, but nothing more serious. Although it might feel like April this week, it is still an unfavorable February this week when it comes to severe weather!